Presidential Underdogs With a Bit

Looks like the MSM is starting to realize that in spite of their best efforts, the political-brainwashing didn't take. They've finally realized that Ron Paul is a force to be reckoned with after all.

by Craig Crawford, GQ Politics - Oct 15, 2007

Mitt Romney and Rudolph Giuliani did their best to steal the show at last week’s Republican presidential debate, intensely going back and forth at each other as the other seven candidates watched in silence. They were not just trying to score points against each other. Their bickering also had the effect of momentarily appearing to turn their party’s contest into a two-man race that excluded the remainder of the field.

With the Iowa caucuses only a dozen weeks away, the front-runners of both parties are pushing to lock in their positions and freeze out the also-rans. But the voters might have a different idea about who belongs in the top tier, no matter how determinedly the leaders seek to spotlight just a few close rivals in their bids to undermine the others.

On the GOP side, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are gathering enough momentum and money to potentially surprise the handicappers once the voting begins. For Democrats, Bill Richardson could be the dark horse to watch. The most likely chance for upsets will come in the small, early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — where the lesser-knowns can still hope to harvest votes at the retail level — and outside the blinding focus on those who perform best in the national polls.

It’s a no-brainer for the former New York mayor and the former Massachusetts governor to try to showcase each other as the top two GOP contenders. For months, Giuliani has consistently come out on top in national polls. While underperforming in such surveys, Romney has spent lots of time and money in Iowa to maintain a solid lead, and he still has a leg up in New Hampshire as the former chief executive of a neighboring state.

The dynamic is a bit different on the Democratic side, where Hillary Rodham Clinton has had success establishing herself as the sole front-runner while Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina battle for second place. At debates, the New York senator seldom misses a chance to praise or otherwise acknowledge the existence of second-tier candidates such as fellow Sens. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut. This suggests she sees some benefit in elevating those candidates who might make trouble for Edwards or Obama and split the “anybody but Hillary” Democratic vote.

Time is growing short for feisty also-rans such as Huckabee, Paul and Richardson. Without surprise showings in January to catapult them into the spotlight, they’ll probably be crushed by the overwhelming force of more than 20 states voting Feb. 5 — an unprecedented consolidation that poses a serious disadvantage for the lesser-known and under-funded.

Paul surprised many by raising an impressive $5.1 million this summer and starting this month with more cash on hand than Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Since the Texas congressman was the Libertarian nominee for president in 1988 (and finished third, with half a percent of the popular vote), Paul has attracted a loyal following from Republicans opposed to big government and the war in Iraq.

Running for Running Mate

While the spotlight flicks on and off the Huckabee and Richardson dreams of topping a 2008 ticket, both are getting ample play in the great machine of gossip and speculation about next year’s vice presidential picks. Such is the fate of those not perceived to be top contenders. They tend to get many more media questions than they would like about possibly serving as a running mate.

Huckabee is in a particularly strong position to be considered for the second spot if Giuliani or another social moderate secures the GOP nomination. The Baptist preacher and former Arkansas governor is solidly in sync with religious conservatives who have been a pivotal voting bloc for the GOP since Ronald Reagan galvanized them in 1980. Richardson’s Hispanic heritage has generated interest in him as a Democratic second-spot pick who could stave off GOP inroads into a growing demographic group. A popular governor in New Mexico who was Bill Clinton’s Energy secretary and U.N. envoy, Richardson has proved to be an able campaigner. His unvarnished anti-war views could be a plus, too.

For the same reasons that they’re attractive running-mate possibilities, Huckabee and Richardson should not be completely dismissed as candidates who could stage major upsets in an early state. Still, as with so many of the front-runner alternatives in both parties, even a surprise victory in Iowa or elsewhere might not be enough to immediately gather the money for enough advertising and infrastructure to dominate the quick succession of decisive contests throughout the country.

But America loves underdogs — and in the 2008 race, both parties feature plenty of choices for a come-from-behind shocker.